The BSP's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) subscribes to the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) as framework for macroeconomic forecasting analysis in support of monetary policy formulation. FPAS is a standard framework, adopted by many in"ation-targeting central banks, that organizes generation, consolidation, economic information relavant This paper aims describe how forecasts simulations are generated formulation at BSP. To this end, article summarizes main features process involved generating baseline forecasts, alternative scenarios, simulations. We highlight complementary roles played BSP’s suite models expert judgement from sector specialists well importance forecast communication transmission policy. Finally, we present systematic evaluation performance BSP 2010 2020 together with some lessons during COVID-19 pandemic recent efforts improve FPAS.